INDUS is set to report its Q3 figures on November 12th. Here is what to expect:

Group sales are seen to come in at € 455m (9M: € 1.3 bn), implying 2.9 % yoy growth including € 6.4m (eNuW) from the first-time consolidation of acquisitions, and reflecting an expected mixed performance across segments.

Q3 EBIT of € 31.1m (9M: € 76m), which implies an EBIT margin of 6.8% (-0.37pp yoy), looks set to decrease by 2.3% yoy, due to a higher personnel cost ratio (32.5% vs. 29.2% in Q3 2024) following increased headcounts in Engineering and Infrastructure in 2025, which were not offset by Materials. Despite challenging procurement situations for certain raw materials, we expect no material impact on margins.

Engineering sales should come in at € 147m, down 3.5% yoy, due to the still weak market environment marked by cautious order behavior at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, thanks to the good order momentum from Q2, which should partially persist in Q3, H2 sales should be in line with the segment’s usual seasonality, i.e. back-end loaded revenue recognition.

The Infrastructure segment is expected to grow by 5.6% yoy to € 157m (eNuW), thanks to a moderate revenue momentum and strong order intake visible in H1, while operating in a contracting construction environment. To recap, permitting activity in Q2 was still muted, impacting Q3 revenues with 1-3 months delay. Hinting at stronger Q3 order intake, German building permits were growing particularly strong in July and August with 31.7% and 5.3% (both mom). The Eurozone Construction PMI also indicated that the contraction should become slightly less severe during Q3.

The Materials Solutions segment is expected to grow by 7.2% yoy to € 152m in Q3, a strong improvement compared to -8.9% in FY24. This should largely be attributable to easing export restrictions and well-handled sourcing of critical components. Overall, demand of key products as produced by BETEK looks set to have remained high.

Looking ahead, a swift end to the US lockdown could end delays in newly accelerated mining permitting, boosting mining tool demand during the short-term. The tariff truce between China and US, affecting rare earth materials, runs out on November 11th. As trade negotiations seem to progress well, permanently lower export barriers could trigger improving material availability. Most importantly, the pending release of funds from Germany’s infrastructure bill should turn into a notable tailwind, yet most likely not before H2 2026 (eNuW).

FY25 guidance reachable. Taking into account the expected 9M performance (eNuW € 1.3bn sales), gradual end market improvements and improved raw material availability, the company should be on track to meet its guidance (€ 1.7 - 1.85bn sales). However, as our estimates indicate annual group revenue of € 1.74bn, the lower end of the guidance appears to be a sensible target. Confirming BUY at € 34 PT, based on DCF.