On November 13th, tonies will release its Q3 figures (sales and its mix), for which we expect continuously dynamic topline growth across all categories and regions. Here is what to expect:

Upbeat adoption should drive Q3 momentum. Following a sluggish H1 sales of Tonieboxes due to retailers´ restraint in orders in anticipation of the Toniebox 2 (TB2), we should see a clear demand pickup in Q3 with Toniebox sales up 41% yoy to € 35m (eNuW). As sales of Tonieboxes are usually accompanied by Tonies figurines sales, we also expect strong growth for the category; +27% yoy to € 85m.

Regionally, this should trigger a return to growth in the DACH region (Q1: -3% yoy, Q2: 0% yoy) as we estimate Q3 sales of € 51m (+20% yoy). While Rest of the World is expected to keep its strong momentum (eNuW: €28m, +75% yoy) after recent country expansions into UK, France and ANZ, the North America segment should follow the same path, yet it is additionally driven by recent price increases since May on the most relevant Tonies figurines to offset the tariff impact. North America sales are hence seen to rise to € 45m (after FX) with 22% yoy growth. Overall, group sales should reach € 124m, up 30% yoy.

Exposure to tariffs to be minimal. tonies´ business model has features that mitigate exposure to tariffs. First, its multi-sourcing approach allowed to shift production to Vietnam in early 2025, with installed capacity of >1.8m Tonieboxes, which more than covers all of US demand (eNuW: c. 1m units for FY’25e) and helps to reduce dependence on China amid tensions with the US. Second, tonies has shown pricing power visible in a growing ASP of its Tonies figurines, and thus we expect a similar increase in Q3. Thus, effects of tariffs on gross margins should be minor, due to the company´s ability to pass on tariffs to customers.

TB2 should create the basis for growth. Given a doubling of the age range, combined with strong additional functionalities (e.g. interactive audio playing a.k.a Tonieplay), and promising partnerships such as Monopoly with Hasbro (recently announced), the TB2 serves as an ideal growth driver for the future, with potential to increase revenue through higher-priced Tonies (Tonieplay games) and increases in Accessories sales (e.g. joysticks).

Guidance well in reach. In the context of a strong Q3 ahead, the guidance of € 600m group sales (before FX), which includes €273m sales from North America (before FX) and an adj. EBITDA margin of 6.5-8.5%, looks well achievable, in line with our estimates. If tonies manages to deliver a continuously strong TB2 phase, coupled with a strong Black Friday performance on November 28th, a potential guidance beat could be in the cards.

Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case due to high revenue growth and margin expansion, and therefore reiterate our BUY rating and keep our PT unchanged at € 11.00 based on DCF.