Topic: Global warming has caused a severe rise in natural disasters such as floods, wildfires and storms in the last decades. The research institute “Our World in Data” by the University of Oxford indicates an increase from 83 recorded natural disaster events in 1970 to 410 in 2023. This fuels the demand for Rosenbauer’s innovative firefighting solutions.

Wildfires require a different set of products: During recent years, Rosenbauer has already launched a variety of products reared towards the use in wildfires. This use case differs from operations in urban areas, as the mission usually extends over a longer time frame and under extremely high temperatures, increasing the physical burden for firefighters. For instance, Rosenbauer offers the lightweight fire protection suit GAROS G10. In addition to reduced weight, the suit offers optimized heat and moisture dissipation. Another example is the FFFT 3500/100 firetruck, developed for operations in forest fires. The truck has a weight-optimized superstructure, which enables a good performance on the soft forest floor.  

Early detection of wildfires: Rosenbauer has been cooperating with the German Aerotech start-up OroraTech since the start of 2022 to detect wildfires early using satellite systems. The aim of the strategic partnership is to provide current and historical satellite data to emergency services on the ground via the RDS Connected Command software. Digital Solutions are part of Rosenbauer’s Customer Service segment, which has been responsible for 9.7% of total revenues in FY23 and recently experienced a strong growth of 35% yoy in Q1 FY24.

Order intake remains strong: Order intake in Q1 2024 came in at € 362m, an increase of 24% yoy supported by structural trends such as global warming and the electrification of fire trucks. Furthermore, order backlog rose to a record high of € 1.94bn, giving Rosenbauer enough fuel for future growth. After the transition year FY23, we expect further profitability improvements throughout FY24e thanks to (1) price increases which are successively reflected in sales, (2) an improving supply chain, and (3) internal efficiency measures.

Further, with the upcoming capital increase, the current balance sheet issues should be resolved by the end of FY24e. As the supply chain situation improves and order backlog reaching a record high, shares look poised for a re-rating. BUY with an unchanged € 50.00 PT based on DCF.