MAX Automation reduced its FY25 guidance to € 300-340m sales (old: € 340-400m, old eNuW: € 364m) and € 12-18m EBITDA (old: € 21-28m, old NuW: € 25m) based on preliminary H1 figures (H1 report to be published on August 1st) and the related updated FY projections of the individual portfolio companies.

The revision of the sales forecast is primarily attributable to a slowdown and delay in order intake during the first half of 2025. Mind you, in Q1 the company reported a 14% yoy order intake decrease with a 18% lower order backlog.

This development is closely linked to challenging macroeconomic conditions and increased unpredictability surrounding U.S. customs regulations, which have led to hesitancy among customers when it comes to placing new orders. Moreover, a number of planned projects - especially those related to the automotive and environmental technology industries - have been pushed back to later dates.

The significant EBITDA guidance reduction is partially driven by one-off expenses (next to the reduced top-line) in the mid-single-digit million range (eNuW: € 5m) geared towards right-sizing cost structures across the portfolio. Importantly, costs associated with the planned measures will entirely be booked in FY25 and should lead to a decreased cost base from next year onwards.

MAX’ portfolio remains well-positioned for long-term value creation, underpinned by its exposure to structurally attractive end markets. Core holdings such as bdtronic, Vecoplan, ELWEMA, and NSM + Jücker operate in niche segments including e-mobility, environmental technology/recycling, and industrial automation, all of which are supported by enduring macro trends. Yet, timing of the return to strong structural growth remains uncertain. The group’s decentralized structure enables operational focus at the subsidiary level, while ongoing cost and efficiency measures are expected to support margin improvement from FY26 onwards.

We confirm our BUY rating with an updated € 6.5 PT (old: € 7) based on DCF with roughly 25% of the EV covered by its minority stake of the listed ZEAL Network.